BREAKING: War Just Arrived In The Official Numbers

BREAKING: The war just arrived in the official numbers. The OECD released its March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook yesterday. US inflation revised upward to 4.2 percent.

The highest in the G7. Up 1.2 percentage points from December. The cause, attributed directly by the OECD, is three words long: the Iran war.

G20 inflation revised to 4.0 percent. Up 1.2 points. Global GDP growth held at 2.9 percent, but only because the 0.3 point upgrade that should have materialised from AI investment and trade momentum was erased entirely by energy disruption.

The growth that the world economy earned was confiscated by a chokepoint. The Eurozone was downgraded to 0.8 percent.

The UK took the largest hit among advanced economies, downgraded half a point to 0.7 percent.

The United States held at 2.0 percent in 2026 and 1.7 in 2027, insulated partially by shale production and net energy exporter status.

Europe has no shale. Europe has no bypass pipeline. Europe has diesel above two euros per litre and over 500 fuel stations running dry.

This is not a forecast of what might happen. This is the OECD quantifying what has already happened.

The energy futures as of March 20 show oil approximately 40 to 60 percent above the December baseline.

Brent closed at $106 to $108 on March 26, up 45 percent year to date, after briefly touching $126 before moderating on ceasefire signals.

The OECD built its revision on the assumption that the disruption moderates by mid-2026.

If it does not moderate, their own adverse scenario adds another 0.9 points to inflation and subtracts 0.5 points from global growth.

That is the path to Larry Fink’s $150 oil and global recession. The OECD just drew the road See more, details. .