Russia Entered The 2026 Iran War As Its Greatest Beneficiary. Ukrainian Drones Just Turned That Windfall Into A Target.

On February 28, US and Israeli strikes hit Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed. Oil surged from $70.71 to $108 per barrel. Russian fossil fuel export earnings jumped twenty percent above February averages to 388 million euros per day.

Urals crude, which had traded at a deep discount to Brent since 2022, began commanding a premium. Carnegie’s Alexandra Prokopenko noted that before the war, Russia was heading toward a genuine budget crisis.

The Gulf conflict bought time. Moscow reportedly began shipping upgraded drones to Iran with enhanced anti-jamming capabilities, creating a feedback loop in which Russian military technology sustains Iranian resistance, which sustains the Hormuz closure, which sustains Russian oil windfalls.

Then Ukraine broke the loop.

Between March 23 and 27, Ukrainian long-range drones struck Primorsk and Ust-Luga three times in five days. Satellite imagery confirmed one oil-loading pier at Ust-Luga completely destroyed.See more, details. .