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JUST-IN: India’s External Affairs Minister called Iran’s Foreign Minister And Asked For Permission To Use The Strait Of Hormuz. He Received It
That sentence should be read slowly. The world’s largest democracy, the fifth-largest economy, a nuclear-armed state with the fourth most powerful military on Earth, a country that imports 85% of its crude oil, called Tehran and requested a waiver to transit an international waterway that has been open to all nations under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea since 1994. And Tehran said yes, on the condition that Indian tankers notify Iranian authorities before entering.
Iran now issues transit permits for the Strait of Hormuz the way a border authority issues visas at an airport. China transits via shadow fleet under IRGC protection without asking, 11.7 million barrels since 28 February, because China funds the war machine. Bangladesh negotiated a waiver on 10 th March. India negotiated one on 11th March. Thailand did not negotiate. The Mayuree Naree was struck by a projectile. Three sailors are missing.
Four tiers of access now govern a 33-kilometre international waterway. Tier one: China, which transits freely because it pays. Tier two: India and Bangladesh, which transit conditionally because they asked. Tier three: the Western alliance, which cannot transit because Iran declared every tanker serving the US, Israel, or allies a legitimate target. Tier four: everyone else, who transits at the risk of being mistaken for tier three by one of 31 autonomous commands that distinguish targets by presence, not flag.
PM Modi’s government told the United States last week that India “never depended on any country” for permission to buy Russian oil. This week, India called Iran for permission to buy any oil at all through Hormuz.
The multi-alignment doctrine that positions India as beholden to no single power has produced a country that simultaneously rejects American conditions on Russian crude and accepts Iranian conditions on Gulf crude. India does not take orders. India takes permissions. From everyone, depending on the waterway.
The Jaishankar-Araghchi phone call is the most consequential diplomatic exchange of the war that nobody is covering. It establishes that the post-28 February Hormuz is not closed and not open.
It is licensed. And the licensing authority is a government whose Supreme Leader is cardboard, whose military command just announced continuous strikes, whose 31 autonomous provincial commands operate on sealed orders from a dead man, and whose foreign minister grants transit waivers that no one can guarantee the military will honour.
The waiver is issued by Tehran’s diplomatic wing. The weapons are controlled by the Mosaic Doctrine’s 31 autonomous commands.
The diplomatic wing and the military wing do not communicate through a functioning chain of command.
The same disconnect that burned Oman’s oil tanks while the president apologised could strike an Indian tanker while the foreign minister guarantees its safety.
India has 10 million citizens working in the Gulf. Their remittances sustain families across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. India imports two-thirds of its LNG through the Strait.
India’s March fertiliser tenders went unawarded because no cargo could transit. The permission is not optional. It is existential. And the country granting it cannot guarantee its own military will respect it.
The Strait of Hormuz now operates on the same principle as every chokepoint this war has created: the threat is cheaper than the defence, the insurance cannot price it, and the authority that grants passage answers to a dead man’s orders and a living man’s See more, details. .
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